The recent US-Iran agreement, while offering a temporary respite, has left many in the Middle East cautious and skeptical about its long-term impact. This fragile deal, seen as a mere "Band-Aid" by experts, raises concerns about unresolved tensions and the potential for future conflicts.
The Root Causes of Turbulence
In Kuwait, a country that has endured Iranian drone strikes during the recent conflict, a sense of uncertainty prevails. Iyad Joumma, a Jordanian engineer, echoes the sentiments of many when he says that the success of this agreement hinges on addressing the underlying causes of tension. This perspective is shared by analysts and experts, who unanimously view the interim deal as a temporary solution, lacking the depth needed to bring about a lasting peace.
A Complex Web of Issues
The memorandum of understanding, which aims to halt hostilities for 60 days, focuses on contentious issues like Iran's uranium stockpile, its nuclear program, sanctions, and the release of frozen Iranian assets. However, analysts are skeptical about the likelihood of a final settlement within this timeframe, given the complexity of these issues and the failure of past agreements, such as the 2015 deal, to address them effectively.
Ceasefires and Their Limitations
The re-imposition of a ceasefire in Lebanon, to the dismay of Israel, highlights the fragility of such agreements. Experts point to Gaza as an example, where a ceasefire has done little to address the underlying issues, with Israel occupying a significant portion of the territory, Hamas retaining its weapons, and minimal progress towards a reconstruction effort. Alia Brahimi of the Atlantic Council argues that ceasefires can be used as a cover to pursue military aims, a concern that is particularly relevant in the Gulf region.
The Gulf's Strategic Geography
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global economic artery, underscores the unique challenges in the Gulf. Mkhaimar Abusada, a political science professor, notes that the situation in Gaza is disastrous, with Hamas understanding the consequences of firing and potentially triggering another Israeli invasion. In contrast, the Gulf states face a different dynamic, with Iran's ability to disrupt global oil and gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel's Disappointment and the Axis of Resistance
In Israel, there is disappointment that the deal fails to address Iran's ballistic missile capabilities and its funding of the Axis of Resistance, a coalition of militant Islamist movements. Analysts warn that this could lead to instability in the near future, as Israel's desire for structural change in the Middle East remains unfulfilled.
The Gulf States' Dilemma
The Sunni Arab Gulf states, which have experienced significant damage to their civilian infrastructure and psychological scars from Iranian strikes, are now faced with the challenge of containing a newly empowered Iran. H.A. Hellyer suggests that these states will seek to adopt different strategies, recognizing that they can no longer rely solely on the US for protection. The realization that Iran's influence and power projection must be addressed is a point of consensus among these states.
A New Era, but with Familiar Challenges
While the current agreement may hold and lead to positive headlines in the short term, experts like Neil Quilliam caution that it will not bring about a major breakthrough. The potential for Iran to disrupt oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, its strikes on Gulf states, and its resilience in the face of Israeli and US actions, all suggest that the region remains vulnerable to future conflicts. This new era, as Quilliam describes it, is marked by a sense of uncertainty and the need for a more comprehensive approach to address the deep-rooted issues plaguing the Middle East.
